← Back to map
Methodology

How Risk Levels Are Assigned

Last updated: February 10, 2026

Every state and the District of Columbia is assigned one of six risk levels based on observable federal actions — not predictions, partisanship, or speculation. Risk levels reflect what has already happened, not what might happen.

Risk Level Criteria

LevelCriteria
Critical Direct federal enforcement action against state election infrastructure. Currently applies only to Georgia, where the FBI physically raided county election offices, seizing ballots and voter records.
High State has been sued by the DOJ for voter data and has at least one additional risk factor: competitive 2026 battleground status, coercion attempts (e.g., leveraging voter data for ICE operations), machine access attempts, or being named as a prosecution target in Project 2025 planning documents. States: CO, MI, MN, NH, NV, PA, WI.
Elevated State has been sued by the DOJ for voter data (first wave or January 2026 wave) or has had its case already dismissed by a court. These states were among the earliest or most prominent targets. States: AZ, CA, CT, HI, IL, MA, ME, NY, OR, VA.
Moderate State was sued in a later wave (December 2025 second wave) with no additional risk factors beyond the lawsuit itself. States: DE, DC, MD, NM, RI, VT, WA.
Complied State voluntarily provided full voter registration files to the DOJ, including sensitive personal information (driver's license numbers, partial SSNs). Some signed confidential memoranda of understanding. States: AK, AR, IN, KS, LA, MS, NE, SD, TN, TX, WY.
No Major Action No major reported federal election interference action targeting this state as of the last update. This does not mean these states are safe — only that no specific federal enforcement actions have been publicly reported.

What This Map Does Not Do

This map does not assess the overall health of state election systems, predict future interference, rate state-level voting laws, or evaluate partisan gerrymandering. It is narrowly focused on federal executive branch actions that target state election infrastructure and data.

Official and Race Data

Secretary of State and Attorney General names and party affiliations are sourced from the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) official roster, cross-referenced with Teri Tome's tracker (updated January 24, 2026) and Ballotpedia for 2026 ballot status. Competitive House race ratings use the Cook Political Report ratings as of their January 15, 2026 update.

Primary Sources

⚖️
Brennan Center for Justice
Comprehensive tracker of all DOJ voter information requests and lawsuits, updated continuously. Primary source for lawsuit status, state responses, and court rulings.
🏛️
DOJ Office of Public Affairs
Official press releases announcing lawsuits and enforcement actions.
📰
News Reporting
NPR, CBS News, AP, USA Today, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, and The Washington Post for breaking developments including the Fulton County FBI raid. Fox News specifically for December 2025 second-wave lawsuit reporting.
🗳️
Ballotpedia & NASS
Secretary of State roster, Attorney General elections, 2026 ballot status. Cross-referenced with Teri Tome's SoS/AG tracker.
📊
Cook Political Report
House race competitiveness ratings. Using the January 15, 2026 update which shifted 7 races.
🔍
Democracy Docket & Votebeat
Supplementary legal tracking and election administration reporting.

Updates and Corrections

This map is updated as events unfold. If you spot an error or have a correction with a primary source, email info@electionriskmap.org. Accuracy matters more than speed.