2026 Midterm Threat Assessment

Federal Election Interference Risk Map

Tracking DOJ lawsuits, FBI actions, Project 2025 implementation, and competitive House races. Based on Brennan Center, DOJ press releases, NPR, and news reporting through March 2026.

Risk Level

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States Sued

+ D.C. for voter data

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Complied

with DOJ demands

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1,000+

CISA Staff Lost

election security gutted

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The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — which helped local officials protect voting systems from hacking — has lost over 1,000 employees through firings, layoffs, and transfers since early 2025. Dismantling CISA was a key Project 2025 recommendation.

States Contacted

by DOJ total

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At least 47 states and Washington, D.C. received DOJ requests for complete voter registration lists, including driver's license numbers and partial Social Security numbers. Only 11 have provided the data so far. The rest refused or sought clarification.

Courts Fighting Back

Illinois — Former DOJ Attorneys Oppose Lawsuit

18 former Justice Department attorneys from both parties filed amicus brief arguing DOJ lacks legal authority to demand voter data. Have filed similar briefs in most ongoing lawsuits nationwide.

Mar 3, 2026 · WTTW

Minnesota — Motion to Dismiss Hearing

Federal judge heard oral arguments on state's motion to dismiss DOJ voter data lawsuit. Decision pending. DOJ's legal strategy has faced dismissals in California, Michigan, and Oregon.

Mar 3, 2026 · MPR News

Federal Appeals — DOJ Escalating 3 Dismissed Cases

DOJ appealed dismissals in Oregon and California to the 9th Circuit, and Michigan to the 6th Circuit. After losing 3 for 3 in trial courts, DOJ is escalating rather than accepting the rulings.

Feb 25, 2026 · Democracy Docket

Utah — Redistricting Map Upheld

Three-judge federal panel denied GOP challenge to court-ordered congressional map. Utah Supreme Court also rejected separate challenge. Map giving Democrats shot at House seat stands for 2026.

Feb 23, 2026 · NBC News

Fulton County, GA — Suing FBI for Ballot Return

County suing to recover 700+ boxes of 2020 records seized by FBI. Alleges affidavit relied on debunked claims and biased witnesses. Trump-appointed judge ordered FBI agent to testify about potentially misleading warrant.

Feb 2026 · Democracy Docket

Ohio — Voter Purge Lawsuit Filed

LWV and CAIR challenge SB 293 requiring monthly citizenship checks via flawed databases. Law allows cancellations without notice, even during NVRA 90-day quiet period before elections.

Feb 13, 2026 · Campaign Legal Center

Federal — Trump Election EO Blocked Again

Judge Kollar-Kotelly permanently blocked two more provisions: agencies cannot assess citizenship before offering voter registration forms, and military/overseas voters cannot be required to show proof of citizenship. 110-page ruling calls it unconstitutional.

Jan 30, 2026 · Democracy Docket

Michigan — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing

Trump-appointed Judge Jarbou ruled all three federal laws DOJ cited "do not allow the United States to obtain the records at issue." Third dismissal on the merits. DOJ appealed to 6th Circuit (Feb 25).

Feb 10, 2026 · Votebeat

California — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing

Judge ruled DOJ's voter data demands paint "an alarming picture regarding the centralization of Americans' information within the Executive Branch." DOJ appealed to 9th Circuit (Feb 25).

Jan 2026 · Brennan Center

Oregon — Case Dismissed → DOJ Appealing

Court rejected DOJ's legal theory that federal law entitles it to unredacted voter files with Social Security numbers. DOJ appealed to 9th Circuit (Feb 25).

Jan 2026 · Brennan Center Tracker

Georgia — Dismissed (Jurisdictional)

Judge dismissed voter data lawsuit because DOJ filed in the wrong court. Dismissed without prejudice — DOJ can refile in Atlanta. (The separate FBI raid on Fulton County is a different action.)

Jan 23, 2026 · Georgia Recorder

Supreme Court — Watson v. RNC (Pending)

SCOTUS hearing challenge to mail ballot postmark deadlines. Oral arguments March 23. Ruling expected by summer could invalidate grace periods in 14+ states right before 2026 midterms.

Oral args Mar 23, 2026 · Voting Rights Lab

Last updated: March 15, 2026

Latest Developments

Mar 15

SAVE Act Senate vote this week — Thune scheduled floor vote week of Mar 16 despite lacking 60 votes. Trump threatened to block all other legislation until it passes. Expected to fail on filibuster but signals escalating pressure New

Mar 14

6th Circuit partially expedites Michigan appeal — Court grants DOJ's request for faster briefing schedule; briefs due late March and mid-April. Michigan case positioned to potentially be first voter data case to reach Supreme Court New

Mar 11

Sen. Cornyn flips on filibuster — Texas Republican reverses decades of support, now backs "whatever changes to Senate rules may prove necessary" to pass SAVE Act. Driven by Paxton primary pressure and pursuit of Trump endorsement New

Mar 10

DNC sues Trump admin over federal agents at polls — 11 FOIA requests to DOJ, DHS, and DoD about plans to deploy armed agents or troops to polling places went unanswered for 5 months. White House press secretary refused to guarantee ICE won't be at polling locations New

Mar 9

FBI subpoenas Arizona 2020 election records — Grand jury subpoena issued to Arizona Senate for records from the Maricopa County Cyber Ninjas audit. Senate President Petersen (R) complied. AZ AG Mayes: "This is not a legitimate law enforcement inquiry." Expands 2020 investigation beyond Georgia New

Mar 3

18 former DOJ attorneys file amicus brief in Illinois — bipartisan group argues Trump administration lacks legal authority to demand voter data. Have filed similar briefs across most ongoing lawsuits

Mar 3

Minnesota court hears motion to dismiss DOJ voter data lawsuit — judge weighing state's legal challenge as DOJ strategy faces mounting court setbacks

Feb 26

Draft emergency EO circulating to declare national emergency and seize control of elections — would ban mail-in ballots and voting machines based on debunked China conspiracy theory. Legal experts call it "blatantly unconstitutional"

Feb 26

DOJ sues 5 more states for voter data — Utah, Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, and New Jersey. Total now 29 states + D.C. Three are Republican-governed; Kentucky's Republican SoS also refused

Feb 25

DOJ appeals 3 dismissed cases — Oregon and California to 9th Circuit, Michigan to 6th Circuit. Lost in trial courts, now escalating to federal appeals courts

Feb 25

Thune kills SAVE Act talking filibuster — at least 4 GOP senators refuse to support, including co-sponsors Tillis and Curtis. Bill will face 60-vote threshold, unlikely to pass

Feb 25

FBI call with 50 state election officials — DHS confirms ICE will NOT be at polling places for 2026. But federal agencies refuse to affirm states' constitutional authority over elections. Election conspiracy theorist Heather Honey (now DHS deputy) urged states to use SAVE database. Oregon SoS called meeting "bluster" with "not a lot of facts"

Feb 25

Fulton County asks Trump-appointed judge to force FBI agent to testify about misleading affidavit used to justify election raid. County alleges FBI omitted findings that debunked its own claims

Feb 24

Trump demands SAVE Act at State of the Union — calls out Thune by name ("We have to stop it, John"), falsely claims "cheating is rampant," demands ban on mail-in ballots. Exaggerates bill's provisions beyond what it contains

Feb 23

Federal panel upholds Utah court-ordered redistricting map — GOP challenge denied. Map giving Democrats shot at House seat stands for 2026

Feb 20

CREW wins FOIA — reveals DOJ had no evidence of noncitizen voting when it began suing states for voter data. Undercuts stated justification for entire campaign

Feb 17

New Mexico passes SB 264 — criminalizes deploying federal troops at polling places (fourth-degree felony). Also bans altering voter qualifications beyond state law. Sent to governor

Feb 16

Missouri Republican SoS Hoskins refuses DOJ voter data demands — joins bipartisan resistance from WV, NH, PA. Fourth Republican official to refuse

Feb 13

Ohio hands over 8 million voter records to DOJ — Republican SoS Frank LaRose transfers statewide voter data including SSNs and driver's license numbers. Ohio Democrats call it capitulation. Total complied states now 12 New

Feb 13

Ohio voter purge lawsuit filed — LWV and CAIR challenge SB 293 requiring monthly citizenship checks using flawed databases. Law allows cancellations without notice, even during NVRA quiet period

Feb 13

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) supports SAVE Act but opposes eliminating filibuster — Republicans claim 50+ votes but still short of 60. Collins backed revised version dropping per-vote citizenship proof requirement

Feb 12

Nebraska hands over voter data to DOJ — SoS Evnen transfers names, DOBs, and partial SSNs after state Supreme Court denies injunction. Court will still hear full case March 31. Evnen pledges state will not remove voters solely on DOJ recommendations

Feb 12

West Virginia's Republican Secretary of State rejects DOJ voter data demands — Kris Warner: "Just not gonna happen." Cites state law, joins bipartisan resistance from NH, PA, and MO

Feb 11

House passes SAVE America Act 218-213 — requires proof of citizenship to register, photo ID to vote, and monthly voter roll purges via DHS. Sen. Murkowski (R-AK) first GOP senator to oppose, citing federalization of elections. Faces 60-vote threshold in Senate

Feb 10

Trump-appointed judge dismisses Michigan voter data case — 3rd court to reject DOJ on the merits (0 for 3)

Feb 10

Virginia becomes the 24th state sued by DOJ for voter data

Feb 10

Senate Majority Leader Thune rejects eliminating filibuster for SAVE Act — says Republicans lack votes for nuclear option. One Democrat (Rep. Cuellar, TX) voted yes in House

Feb 7

Nebraska judge dismisses lawsuit blocking voter data transfer to DOJ — Common Cause appealing. Supreme Court denies injunction but will hear case March 31

Feb 6

FBI invites all 50 state election officials to mysterious February 25 call on 'midterm preparations' — Nevada Secretary of State calls it 'beyond crazy'

Feb 3

Trump calls on Republicans to "nationalize the voting" in at least 15 places — Constitution delegates elections to states

Jan 28

FBI raids Fulton County, GA election offices — seizes 2020 ballots and voter rolls. DNI Gabbard on-site, called Trump during raid

Jan 30

Judge Kollar-Kotelly permanently blocks two more provisions of Trump election EO — agencies cannot assess citizenship before offering voter registration; military/overseas voters cannot be required to show proof of citizenship

Jan 25

AG Bondi demands Minnesota voter rolls as condition for pulling ICE — Secretary of State calls it "an apparent ransom"

Jan 23

Federal judge dismisses Georgia voter data lawsuit on jurisdictional grounds — DOJ filed in wrong court, can refile

Jan 2026

Courts dismiss California and Oregon cases on the merits — CA judge calls centralization effort "alarming"

Dec 2025

Second wave of lawsuits — DOJ sues WI, IL, GA, DC, DE, MD, NM, RI, VT, WA, and more for voter data

Sept 2025

First wave — DOJ sues CA, MI, MN, NH, NY, OR, PA for refusing to hand over voter rolls with SSNs

2025

CISA gutted — 1,000+ election security staff fired, transferred, or resigned. FBI banned from countering election disinfo